RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Epidemiological impact of prioritising SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by antibody status: mathematical modelling analyses
JF BMJ Innovations
JO BMJ Innov
FD All India Institute of Medical Sciences
SP 327
OP 336
DO 10.1136/bmjinnov-2021-000677
VO 7
IS 2
A1 Houssein H Ayoub
A1 Hiam Chemaitelly
A1 Monia Makhoul
A1 Zaina Al Kanaani
A1 Einas Al Kuwari
A1 Adeel A Butt
A1 Peter Coyle
A1 Andrew Jeremijenko
A1 Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal
A1 Ali Nizar Latif
A1 Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik
A1 Hanan F Abdul Rahim
A1 Gheyath K Nasrallah
A1 Hadi M Yassine
A1 Mohamed G Al Kuwari
A1 Hamad Eid Al Romaihi
A1 Mohamed H Al-Thani
A1 Roberto Bertollini
A1 Abdullatif Al Khal
A1 Laith J Abu-Raddad
YR 2021
UL http://innovations.bmj.com/content/7/2/327.abstract
AB Background Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been developed, but their availability falls far short of global needs. This study aimed to investigate the impact of prioritising available doses on the basis of recipient antibody status, that is by exposure status, using Qatar as an example.Methods Vaccination impact (defined as the reduction in infection incidence and the number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection or one adverse disease outcome) was assessed under different scale-up scenarios using a deterministic meta-population mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the presence of vaccination.Results For a vaccine that protects against infection with an efficacy of 95%, half as many vaccinations were needed to avert one infection, disease outcome or death by prioritising antibody-negative individuals for vaccination. Prioritisation by antibody status reduced incidence at a faster rate and led to faster elimination of infection and return to normalcy. Further prioritisation by age group amplified the gains of prioritisation by antibody status. Gains from prioritisation by antibody status were largest in settings where the proportion of the population already infected at the commencement of vaccination was 30%–60%. For a vaccine that only protects against disease and not infection, vaccine impact was reduced by half, whether this impact was measured in terms of averted infections or disease outcomes, but the relative gains from using antibody status to prioritise vaccination recipients were similar.Conclusions Major health and economic gains can be achieved more quickly by prioritizing those who are antibody-negative while doses of the vaccine remain in short supply.All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplemental information.